Want to win a boon every two weeks? Going after the six available avatars? Don’t know which team you should pick? This page is for you!

To recap the basics, every two weeks, three of the six Obelisk teams compete for control of the Obelisk, which is the origin of its name. You must choose a team to battle against, and the team that performs best wins.

Since the winners for each round of battles are not decided randomly, it should be possible to predict the winners more often than by chance. Thanks to the archive at SunnyNeo, I have developed a model to forecast the winner in each round based on two factors that work quite well. These two factors are:

How often they win

As some teams are judged to give better boons than others, and thus are selected to win more often by the regular battlers, this is the simpler of the two factors to calculate. Take the number of times a team has won and divide it by the number of times they have battled. The Sway win roughly half of their battles, while the Thieves Guild wins about one in five battles. Anyone can achieve a decent win percentage by choosing the best of these teams each time, but that isn’t very interesting, especially if you’re not a fan of The Sway or want to earn all the avatars, and we can do much better. How? How long since they last won

Because there are avatar hunters who want every team to win, this factor has to be taken into account. I take the number of rounds since a team last won and calculate a median win round when I would expect this team to have won 50% of the time by that time, and put this number into a t-distribution to get a probability that the team would have won at some point between their last win and now. How do we use this data to predict winners?

The Model

Here’s the exciting part: I set the team that won most recently to 0, then I take a constant representing a minimum % chance of winning (about 5%), and add the two variables (after scaling them for prediction accuracy) listed above to get my model’s output. Then, once I know which three teams will be participating, I scale the outputs so that the sum of percentages adds to 100%. I’ll share the results that my model produces each week here.

This week’s predictions

Obelisk Team	Last Win	Win %	Prediction
Awakened	5 rounds ago	34%	31%
Brute Squad	2 rounds ago	28%	17%
The Sway	9 rounds ago	44%	51%

FAQ

How do I interpret the table?

The first column displays the names of the Obelisk teams, the second column indicates the number of rounds since that team last won, and the third column shows the average frequency of wins for each team. The final, highlighted column contains my estimated predictions for the next battle.

Who should I battle with?

That’s a decision only you can make; whether you want to win more often, aim for avatars, or seek specific boons. I hope my model will help you make an informed choice and achieve the outcome you’re striving for.

The team you picked lost!

I can’t guarantee that my preferred team will win (If I could, I’d be using my talents to make money in the real world), but I believe that if you follow my advice, you’ll win more often than with any other publicly known strategy.

Why don’t the numbers in the prediction column add up to 100%?

The numbers are rounded to the nearest per cent.

I picked the winning team, but didn’t get a reward?

Did you remember to play ten battles? Don’t forget to do this, or you won’t win any rewards!

I do my ten battles every fortnight, but I keep losing. Why?

Wins are more helpful to your team than draws and losses; stronger opponents are worth more points than weaker ones; and every battle after the 10th helps your team get closer to victory. Keep up the battling!